Estimated current prevalence of active cGVHD. Estimated current prevalence of active cGVHD considering estimates through the 2012 to 2022 time frame (A) and variation in projections when considering different cGVHD risk (B). Red bars in panel A represent estimated yearly prevalence assuming an underlying overall cGVHD rate of 40%, with increasing percentages of being on immunosuppression by year (ranging from 40% in 2012 up to 90% in 2022) and increasing percentages of being alive by year (ranging from 70% in 2012 up to 95% in 2022). The left-hand y-axis applies to the yearly prevalence estimates. The blue line shows the cumulative active prevalence estimates, with the values at each year representing the sum of all years up to the listed year. The right-hand y-axis applies to the cumulative prevalence estimates. Panel B shows the same as panel A, but the underlying rate of cGVHD varies, with each bar within each year representing a particular assumed true prevalence, ranging from 20% to 50%. Modeling assumptions and variation explored are listed in the supplemental Methods. cgvhdprob, assumed cGVHD probability after transplant, varied through range of 20% to 50%.