Values of R0 producing the smallest CIs
λ . | R0 . | CI, % . |
---|---|---|
1/25 | 600 | 89 |
1/30 | 300 | 73 |
1/35 | 300 | 64 |
1/40 | 300 | 32 |
1/45 | 300 | 61 |
1/50 | 200 | 94 |
λ . | R0 . | CI, % . |
---|---|---|
1/25 | 600 | 89 |
1/30 | 300 | 73 |
1/35 | 300 | 64 |
1/40 | 300 | 32 |
1/45 | 300 | 61 |
1/50 | 200 | 94 |
Although 1 per 30 and 1 per 35 weeks have the widest acceptable range of R0, the method of Table 1 does not account for how central the true values are to the simulated CIs. To address this, we determined which combination of λ and R0 produced the smallest CIs in increments of 1%. We found that λ = 1 per 40 weeks with R0 = 300 resulted in the shortest CIs covering the values of 4 criterion values from the data (Figure 3; and “Determining acceptable values of λ and R0”), and thus consider these to be the best estimates.