Table 2

Values of R0 producing the smallest CIs

λR0CI, %
1/25 600 89 
1/30 300 73 
1/35 300 64 
1/40 300 32 
1/45 300 61 
1/50 200 94 
λR0CI, %
1/25 600 89 
1/30 300 73 
1/35 300 64 
1/40 300 32 
1/45 300 61 
1/50 200 94 

Although 1 per 30 and 1 per 35 weeks have the widest acceptable range of R0, the method of Table 1 does not account for how central the true values are to the simulated CIs. To address this, we determined which combination of λ and R0 produced the smallest CIs in increments of 1%. We found that λ = 1 per 40 weeks with R0 = 300 resulted in the shortest CIs covering the values of 4 criterion values from the data (Figure 3; and “Determining acceptable values of λ and R0”), and thus consider these to be the best estimates.

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