Comparative analysis of the predictive capacity of scoring systems for CMML patients by their concordance probability estimate and ability to segregate different risk groups for OS and evolution to AML in the training cohort
| Scoring system and risk groups . | Median OS (mo) . | Predictive capacity for OS . | AML evolution at 2 y (%) . | Predictive capacity for AML evolution . |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPSS | CPE = 0.658 | CPE = 0.694 | ||
| Low | 72 | Low vs intermediate-1, P < .001; low vs intermediate-2, P < .001; low vs high, P < .001; intermediate-1 vs intermediate-2, P < .001; intermediate-1 vs high, P < .001; intermediate-2 vs high, P < .001 | 7 | Low vs intermediate-1, P = .023; low vs intermediate-2, P < .001; low vs high, P < .001; intermediate-1 vs intermediate-2, P < .001; intermediate-1 vs high, P < .001; intermediate-2 vs high, P = .015 |
| Intermediate-1 | 31 | 14 | ||
| Intermediate-2 | 13 | 37 | ||
| High | 5 | 73 | ||
| Worsley et al10 | CPE = 0.573 | CPE = 0.593 | ||
| Low | 42 | Low vs high, P < .001 | 10 | Low vs high, P < .001 |
| High | 22 | 27 | ||
| Germing et at8 | CPE = 0.563 | CPE = 0.595 | ||
| Low | 83 | Low vs intermediate, P = .162; low vs high, P = .028; intermediate-1 vs high, P < .001 | 17 | Low vs intermediate, P = .386; low vs high, P = .077; intermediate-1 vs high, P = .001 |
| Intermediate | 38 | 10 | ||
| High | 15 | 35 | ||
| Gonzalez-Medina et al11 | CPE = 0.574 | CPE = 0.594 | ||
| Low | 43 | Low vs high, P < .001 | 11 | Low vs high, P < .001 |
| High | 18 | 28 | ||
| Greenberg et al (IPSS)3 | CPE = 0.597 | CPE = 0.636 | ||
| Low | 41 | Low vs intermediate-1, P = .002; low vs intermediate-2, P < .001; low vs high, P < .001; intermediate-1 vs intermediate-2, P = .001; intermediate-1 vs high, P < .001; intermediate-2 vs high, P = .018 | 9 | Low vs. intermediate-1, P = .090; low vs. intermediate-2, P < .001; low vs. high, P < .001; intermediate-1 vs. intermediate-2, P = .001; intermediate-1 vs. high, P < .001; intermediate-2 vs. high, P = .142 |
| Intermediate-1 | 31 | 18 | ||
| Intermediate-2 | 12 | 50 | ||
| High | 1 | 73 | ||
| Greenberg et al (IPSS-R)4 | CPE = 0.618 | CPE = 0.672 | ||
| Very low | 59 | Very low vs low, P = .026; very low vs intermediate, P < .001; very low vs high, P < .001; very low vs very high, P < .001; low vs intermediate, P < .001; low vs high, P < .001; low vs very high, P < .001; intermediate vs high, P = .038; intermediate vs very high, P < .001; high vs very high, P = .273 | 5 | Very low vs low, P = .480; very low vs intermediate, P = .006; very low vs high, P < .001; very low vs very high, P < .001; low vs intermediate, P < .012; low vs high, P < .001; low vs very high, P < .001; intermediate vs high, < .001; intermediate vs very high, P < .001; high vs very high, P = .115 |
| Low | 39 | 10 | ||
| Intermediate | 26 | 23 | ||
| High | 9 | 57 | ||
| Very high | 6 | 86 | ||
| Alternative CPSS | CPE = 0.658 | CPE = 0.695 | ||
| Low | 72 | Low vs intermediate-1, P < .001; low vs intermediate-2, P < .001; low vs high, P < .001; intermediate-1 vs intermediate-2, P < .001; intermediate-1 vs high, P < .001; intermediate-2 vs high, P < .001 | 7 | Low vs intermediate-1, P = .045; low vs intermediate-2, P < .001; low vs high, P < .001; intermediate-1 vs intermediate-2, P < .001; intermediate-1 vs high, P < .001; intermediate-2 vs high, P < .001. |
| Intermediate-1 | 36 | 13 | ||
| Intermediate-2 | 15 | 33 | ||
| High | 5 | 76 | ||
| Scoring system and risk groups . | Median OS (mo) . | Predictive capacity for OS . | AML evolution at 2 y (%) . | Predictive capacity for AML evolution . |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPSS | CPE = 0.658 | CPE = 0.694 | ||
| Low | 72 | Low vs intermediate-1, P < .001; low vs intermediate-2, P < .001; low vs high, P < .001; intermediate-1 vs intermediate-2, P < .001; intermediate-1 vs high, P < .001; intermediate-2 vs high, P < .001 | 7 | Low vs intermediate-1, P = .023; low vs intermediate-2, P < .001; low vs high, P < .001; intermediate-1 vs intermediate-2, P < .001; intermediate-1 vs high, P < .001; intermediate-2 vs high, P = .015 |
| Intermediate-1 | 31 | 14 | ||
| Intermediate-2 | 13 | 37 | ||
| High | 5 | 73 | ||
| Worsley et al10 | CPE = 0.573 | CPE = 0.593 | ||
| Low | 42 | Low vs high, P < .001 | 10 | Low vs high, P < .001 |
| High | 22 | 27 | ||
| Germing et at8 | CPE = 0.563 | CPE = 0.595 | ||
| Low | 83 | Low vs intermediate, P = .162; low vs high, P = .028; intermediate-1 vs high, P < .001 | 17 | Low vs intermediate, P = .386; low vs high, P = .077; intermediate-1 vs high, P = .001 |
| Intermediate | 38 | 10 | ||
| High | 15 | 35 | ||
| Gonzalez-Medina et al11 | CPE = 0.574 | CPE = 0.594 | ||
| Low | 43 | Low vs high, P < .001 | 11 | Low vs high, P < .001 |
| High | 18 | 28 | ||
| Greenberg et al (IPSS)3 | CPE = 0.597 | CPE = 0.636 | ||
| Low | 41 | Low vs intermediate-1, P = .002; low vs intermediate-2, P < .001; low vs high, P < .001; intermediate-1 vs intermediate-2, P = .001; intermediate-1 vs high, P < .001; intermediate-2 vs high, P = .018 | 9 | Low vs. intermediate-1, P = .090; low vs. intermediate-2, P < .001; low vs. high, P < .001; intermediate-1 vs. intermediate-2, P = .001; intermediate-1 vs. high, P < .001; intermediate-2 vs. high, P = .142 |
| Intermediate-1 | 31 | 18 | ||
| Intermediate-2 | 12 | 50 | ||
| High | 1 | 73 | ||
| Greenberg et al (IPSS-R)4 | CPE = 0.618 | CPE = 0.672 | ||
| Very low | 59 | Very low vs low, P = .026; very low vs intermediate, P < .001; very low vs high, P < .001; very low vs very high, P < .001; low vs intermediate, P < .001; low vs high, P < .001; low vs very high, P < .001; intermediate vs high, P = .038; intermediate vs very high, P < .001; high vs very high, P = .273 | 5 | Very low vs low, P = .480; very low vs intermediate, P = .006; very low vs high, P < .001; very low vs very high, P < .001; low vs intermediate, P < .012; low vs high, P < .001; low vs very high, P < .001; intermediate vs high, < .001; intermediate vs very high, P < .001; high vs very high, P = .115 |
| Low | 39 | 10 | ||
| Intermediate | 26 | 23 | ||
| High | 9 | 57 | ||
| Very high | 6 | 86 | ||
| Alternative CPSS | CPE = 0.658 | CPE = 0.695 | ||
| Low | 72 | Low vs intermediate-1, P < .001; low vs intermediate-2, P < .001; low vs high, P < .001; intermediate-1 vs intermediate-2, P < .001; intermediate-1 vs high, P < .001; intermediate-2 vs high, P < .001 | 7 | Low vs intermediate-1, P = .045; low vs intermediate-2, P < .001; low vs high, P < .001; intermediate-1 vs intermediate-2, P < .001; intermediate-1 vs high, P < .001; intermediate-2 vs high, P < .001. |
| Intermediate-1 | 36 | 13 | ||
| Intermediate-2 | 15 | 33 | ||
| High | 5 | 76 | ||
CPE, concordance probability estimate.