Discrimination of models and improvement in discrimination for outcomes
| Model . | Parameter . | Day 28 nonresponse . | Day 180 survival . | Day 180 nonrelapse mortality . |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinical model* | C-index | 0.71 (0.65-0.78) | 0.75 (0.68-0.81) | 0.81 (0.73-0.86) |
| ST2 | C-index | 0.60 (0.53-0.67) | 0.65 (0.58-0.72) | 0.69 (0.60-0.77) |
| Panel 2 | C-index | 0.57 (0.51-0.64) | 0.67 (0.60-0.74) | 0.68 (0.59-0.75) |
| Panel 3 | C-index | 0.61 (0.54-0.68) | 0.66 (0.58-0.73) | 0.71 (0.62-0.78) |
| Panel 4 | C-index | 0.63 (0.56-0.70) | 0.66 (0.58-0.73) | 0.69 (0.61-0.78) |
| Panel 6 | C-index | 0.62 (0.56-0.69) | 0.67 (0.59-0.73) | 0.72 (0.64-0.78) |
| Clinical + ST2 | C-index | 0.71 (0.63-0.78) | 0.78 (0.70-0.84) | 0.84 (0.76-0.90) |
| Δ C-index | −0.002 (−0.02 to 0.02) | 0.03 (0.004-0.08) | 0.04 (0.01-0.09) | |
| NRIc | 0.38 (−0.35 to 0.67) | 0.66 (0.30-0.99) | 0.82 (0.42-1.16) | |
| Clinical + panel 2 | C-index | 0.70 (0.58-0.76) | 0.79 (0.70-0.85) | 0.84 (0.73-0.89) |
| Δ C-index | −0.02 (−0.04 to −0.006) | 0.04 (0.006-0.09) | 0.03 (−0.002 to 0.07) | |
| NRIc | 0.29 (−0.29 to 0.61) | 0.74 (0.42-1.05) | 0.78 (0.39-1.09) | |
| Clinical + panel 3 | C-index | 0.70 (0.61-0.77) | 0.77 (0.69-0.84) | 0.85 (0.75-0.90) |
| Δ C-index | −0.01 (−0.03 to 0.01) | 0.03 (<0.001-0.07) | 0.04 (0.01-0.09) | |
| NRIc | 0.43 (−0.44 to 0.70) | 0.66 (−0.36 to 1.00) | 0.89 (0.46-1.20) | |
| Clinical + panel 4 | C-index | 0.73 (0.66-0.80) | 0.78 (0.70-0.84) | 0.85 (0.76-0.90) |
| Δ C-index | 0.02 (−0.01 to 0.05) | 0.03 (<0.001-0.08) | 0.04 (0.01-0.09) | |
| NRIc | 0.52 (−0.29 to 0.77) | 0.66 (−0.26 to 0.98) | 0.82 (0.43-1.16) | |
| Clinical + panel 6 | C-index | 0.72 (0.63-0.78) | 0.77 (0.68-0.84) | 0.84 (0.73-0.89) |
| Δ C-index | 0.002 (−0.03 to 0.03) | 0.02 (−0.02 to 0.06) | 0.03 (−0.001 to 0.08) | |
| NRIc | 0.47 (−0.44 to 0.77) | 0.71 (0.37-1.02) | 0.94 (0.55-1.21) |
| Model . | Parameter . | Day 28 nonresponse . | Day 180 survival . | Day 180 nonrelapse mortality . |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinical model* | C-index | 0.71 (0.65-0.78) | 0.75 (0.68-0.81) | 0.81 (0.73-0.86) |
| ST2 | C-index | 0.60 (0.53-0.67) | 0.65 (0.58-0.72) | 0.69 (0.60-0.77) |
| Panel 2 | C-index | 0.57 (0.51-0.64) | 0.67 (0.60-0.74) | 0.68 (0.59-0.75) |
| Panel 3 | C-index | 0.61 (0.54-0.68) | 0.66 (0.58-0.73) | 0.71 (0.62-0.78) |
| Panel 4 | C-index | 0.63 (0.56-0.70) | 0.66 (0.58-0.73) | 0.69 (0.61-0.78) |
| Panel 6 | C-index | 0.62 (0.56-0.69) | 0.67 (0.59-0.73) | 0.72 (0.64-0.78) |
| Clinical + ST2 | C-index | 0.71 (0.63-0.78) | 0.78 (0.70-0.84) | 0.84 (0.76-0.90) |
| Δ C-index | −0.002 (−0.02 to 0.02) | 0.03 (0.004-0.08) | 0.04 (0.01-0.09) | |
| NRIc | 0.38 (−0.35 to 0.67) | 0.66 (0.30-0.99) | 0.82 (0.42-1.16) | |
| Clinical + panel 2 | C-index | 0.70 (0.58-0.76) | 0.79 (0.70-0.85) | 0.84 (0.73-0.89) |
| Δ C-index | −0.02 (−0.04 to −0.006) | 0.04 (0.006-0.09) | 0.03 (−0.002 to 0.07) | |
| NRIc | 0.29 (−0.29 to 0.61) | 0.74 (0.42-1.05) | 0.78 (0.39-1.09) | |
| Clinical + panel 3 | C-index | 0.70 (0.61-0.77) | 0.77 (0.69-0.84) | 0.85 (0.75-0.90) |
| Δ C-index | −0.01 (−0.03 to 0.01) | 0.03 (<0.001-0.07) | 0.04 (0.01-0.09) | |
| NRIc | 0.43 (−0.44 to 0.70) | 0.66 (−0.36 to 1.00) | 0.89 (0.46-1.20) | |
| Clinical + panel 4 | C-index | 0.73 (0.66-0.80) | 0.78 (0.70-0.84) | 0.85 (0.76-0.90) |
| Δ C-index | 0.02 (−0.01 to 0.05) | 0.03 (<0.001-0.08) | 0.04 (0.01-0.09) | |
| NRIc | 0.52 (−0.29 to 0.77) | 0.66 (−0.26 to 0.98) | 0.82 (0.43-1.16) | |
| Clinical + panel 6 | C-index | 0.72 (0.63-0.78) | 0.77 (0.68-0.84) | 0.84 (0.73-0.89) |
| Δ C-index | 0.002 (−0.03 to 0.03) | 0.02 (−0.02 to 0.06) | 0.03 (−0.001 to 0.08) | |
| NRIc | 0.47 (−0.44 to 0.77) | 0.71 (0.37-1.02) | 0.94 (0.55-1.21) |
Values are estimates with 95% confidence intervals. Δ C-index: difference in C-index compared with the clinical model; NRIc: category-less net reclassification index, using clinical model as comparator. Confidence intervals for Δ C-index and NRIc were obtained with 1000 bootstrap replicates. Confidence intervals that contain 0 indicate no evidence of improvement compared with the clinical model.
Clinical model where high-risk patients are those with initial liver GVHD or those aged 50 years or more with initial GVHD grade 3.